The Jovian ammonia abundance from interferometric observations of limb darkening at 3.4 mm     

Francisco Valdes  William J. Welch  Deborah Haber 《Icarus》1982,49(1):17-26

The interferometer visibility of Jupiter, observed at a wavelength of 3.4 mm, is used to determine the global limb darkening of the planet's brightness. From a single-parameter fit to the visibility curve, we find an ammonia-to-molecular hydrogen mixing ratio of 6.4[+5.1, ?1.9] × 10^?5, which corresponds to 35[+28, ?10]% of the solar nitrogen abundance if all of the nitrogen is in the form of ammonia. The fitting procedure uses a simple model atmosphere for the Jovian atmosphere which is based on other observations of the planet. The dependence of the result on the various model parameters is studied.  相似文献   

Competing rationalities in water conflict: Mining and the indigenous community in Chiu Chiu,El Loa Province,northern Chile   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Francisco Molina Camacho 《Singapore journal of tropical geography》2012,33(1):93-107

Conflict over water is a significant phenomenon in many parts of the world where globally linked neoliberal economic activities encroach on the lands of indigenous peoples. This case study from Chile examines how water scarcity affecting indigenous agricultural communities in the Chilean Altiplano has been exacerbated by legally sanctioned mining‐related practices. Notably, the legal framing of the 1981 Water Code promotes private ownership of water rights and enhanced mining activity usually at the expense of the ancestral territorial rights of indigenous communities. In the case of the Atacameño community of Chiu Chiu, a serious decrease in subsistence and agriculture production has been suffered as a consequence of reduced flow in the Loa River, resulting from the water intensive needs and extraction practices of the nearby Chuquicamata mine owned by Codelco, the National Copper Corporation of Chile. Via an analysis of the political ecology of competing rationalities this paper explores how an economic rationality based on utilitarian and reductionist thinking manifested by Codelco has taken precedence locally over a socionatural rationality grounded in holistic thinking and sustainability concerns as articulated by the Chiu Chiu community.  相似文献   

The new national climate change documents of Mexico: what do the regional climate change scenarios represent?     

Francisco Estrada  Benjamín Martínez-López  Cecilia Conde  Carlos Gay-García 《Climatic change》2012,110(3-4):1029-1046

This paper presents a review of the methodology applied for generating the regional climate change scenarios utilized in important National Documents of Mexico, such as the Fourth National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the Fourth National Report to the Convention on Biological Diversity and The Economics of Climate Change in Mexico. It is shown that these regional climate change scenarios, which are one of the main inputs to support the assessments presented in these documents, are an example of the erroneous use of statistical downscaling techniques. The arguments presented here imply that the work based on such scenarios should be revised and therefore, these documents are inadequate for supporting national decision- making.  相似文献   

Decadal prediction skill in a multi-model ensemble   总被引：4，自引：3，他引：1  

Geert Jan van Oldenborgh  Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes  Bert Wouters  Wilco Hazeleger 《Climate Dynamics》2012,38(7-8):1263-1280

Decadal climate predictions may have skill due to predictable components in boundary conditions (mainly greenhouse gas concentrations but also tropospheric and stratospheric aerosol distributions) and initial conditions (mainly the ocean state). We investigate the skill of temperature and precipitation hindcasts from a multi-model ensemble of four climate forecast systems based on coupled ocean-atmosphere models. Regional variations in skill with and without trend are compared with similarly analysed uninitialised experiments to separate the trend due to monotonically increasing forcings from fluctuations around the trend due to the ocean initial state and aerosol forcings. In temperature most of the skill in both multi-model ensembles comes from the externally forced trends. The rise of the global mean temperature is represented well in the initialised hindcasts, but variations around the trend show little skill beyond the first year due to the absence of volcanic aerosols in the hindcasts and the unpredictability of ENSO. The models have non-trivial skill in hindcasts of North Atlantic sea surface temperature beyond the trend. This skill is highest in the northern North Atlantic in initialised experiments and in the subtropical North Atlantic in uninitialised simulations. A similar result is found in the Pacific Ocean, although the signal is less clear. The uninitialised simulations have good skill beyond the trend in the western North Pacific. The initialised experiments show some skill in the decadal ENSO region in the eastern Pacific, in agreement with previous studies. However, the results in this study are not statistically significant (p?≈?0.1) by themselves. The initialised models also show some skill in forecasting 4-year mean Sahel rainfall at lead times of 1 and 5?years, in agreement with the observed teleconnection from the Atlantic Ocean. Again, the skill is not statistically significant (p?≈?0.2). Furthermore, uninitialised simulations that include volcanic aerosols have similar skill. It is therefore still an open question whether initialisation improves predictions of Sahel rainfall. We conclude that the main source of skill in forecasting temperature is the trend forced by rising greenhouse gas concentrations. The ocean initial state contributes to skill in some regions, but variations in boundary forcings such as aerosols are as important in decadal forecasting.  相似文献   

The Global Paleomonsoon as seen through speleothem records from Asia and the Americas   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Hai Cheng  Ashish Sinha  Xianfeng Wang  Francisco W. Cruz  R. Lawrence Edwards 《Climate Dynamics》2012,39(5):1045-1062

The regional monsoons of the world have long been viewed as seasonal atmospheric circulation reversal—analogous to a thermally-driven land-sea breeze on a continental scale. This conventional view of monsoons is now being integrated at a global scale and accordingly, a new paradigm has emerged which considers regional monsoons to be manifestations of global-scale seasonal changes in response to overturning of atmospheric circulation in the tropics and subtropics, and henceforth, interactive components of a singular Global Monsoon (GM) system. The paleoclimate community, however, tends to view ‘paleomonsoon’ (PM), largely in terms of regional circulation phenomena. In the past decade, many high-quality speleothem oxygen isotope (δ¹⁸O) records have been established from the Asian Monsoon and the South American Monsoon regions that primarily reflect changes in the integrated intensities of monsoons on orbital-to-decadal timescales. With the emergence of these high-resolution and absolute-dated records from both sides of the Equator, it is now possible to test a concept of the ‘Global-Paleo-Monsoon’ (GPM) on a wide-range of timescales. Here we present a comprehensive synthesis of globally-distributed speleothem δ¹⁸O records and highlight three aspects of the GPM that are comparable to the modern GM: (1) the GPM intensity swings on different timescales; (2) their global extent; and (3) an anti-phased inter-hemispheric relationship between the Asian and South American monsoon systems on a wide range of timescales.  相似文献   

A new building energy model coupled with an urban canopy parameterization for urban climate simulations—part I. formulation, verification, and sensitivity analysis of the model   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Francisco Salamanca  Andrea Krpo  Alberto Martilli  Alain Clappier 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2010,99(3-4):331-344

The generation of heat in buildings, and the way this heat is exchanged with the exterior, plays an important role in urban climate. To analyze the impact on urban climate of a change in the urban structure, it is necessary to build and use a model capable of accounting for all the urban heat fluxes. In this contribution, a new building energy model (BEM) is developed and implemented in an urban canopy parameterization (UCP) for mesoscale models. The new model accounts for: the diffusion of heat through walls, roofs, and floors; natural ventilation; the radiation exchanged between indoor surfaces; the generation of heat due to occupants and equipments; and the consumption of energy due to air conditioning systems. The behavior of BEM is compared to other models used in the thermal analysis of buildings (CBS-MASS, BLAST, and TARP) and with another box-building model. Eventually, a sensitivity analysis of different parameters, as well as a study of the impact of BEM on the UCP is carried out. The validations indicate that BEM provides good estimates of the physical behavior of buildings and it is a step towards a modeling tool that can be an important support to urban planners.  相似文献   

Objective probabilities about future climate are a matter of opinion     

Carlos Gay  Francisco Estrada 《Climatic change》2010,99(1-2):27-46

In this paper, the unfeasibility of producing “objective” probabilistic climate change scenarios is discussed. Realizing that the knowledge of “true” probabilities of the different scenarios and temperature changes is unachievable, the objective must be to find the probabilities that are the most consistent with what our state of knowledge and expert judgment are. Therefore, subjective information plays, and should play, a crucial role. A new methodology, based on the Principle of Maximum Entropy, is proposed for constructing probabilistic climate change scenarios when only partial information is available. The objective is to produce relevant information for decision-making according to different agents’ judgment and subjective beliefs. These estimates have desirable properties such as: they are the least biased estimate possible on the available information; maximize the uncertainty (entropy) subject to the partial information that is given; The maximum entropy distribution assigns a positive probability to every event that is not excluded by the given information; no possibility is ignored. The probabilities obtained in this manner are the best predictions possible with the state of knowledge and subjective information that is available. This methodology allows distinguishing between reckless and cautious positions regarding the climate change threat.  相似文献   

Dynamic adaptation of maize and wheat production to climate change   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Francisco J. Meza  Daniel Silva 《Climatic change》2009,94(1-2):143-156

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The SDSS DR6 luminosity functions of galaxies     

Antonio D. Montero-Dorta  Francisco Prada 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2009,399(3):1106-1118

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A new insight on the decreasing sea level trend over the Ionian basin in the last decades     

Jorge Del Río Vera  Francisco Criado-Aldeanueva  Jesús García-Lafuente  F. Javier Soto-Navarro 《Global and Planetary Change》2009,68(3):232-235

Altimetry measurements over the Ionian region and tide gauge records along the southern Italian coasts have been combined to analyse the negative sea level trend over the Ionian basin in the last decades. The apparent decreasing trend should be better understood as an abrupt sea level drop in 1998 probably linked to changes in the surface circulation in the Ionian basin induced by the Eastern Mediterranean Transient, which changed from anticyclonic to cyclonic about March 1998. From then onwards, a rising rate of 7.9 ± 0.9 mm/year is observed over the basin.  相似文献